Trade deficit and Foreign Debt - 4

That time of the month again. Most papers ran the same article from AAP on the day of the release of the May 2005 Trade figures. The next day it was doom and gloom again.
SMH:
Australia falls off Sheeps back. How old is this, it has been happening for a century or more. The 1950s were a blip caused by cold climate Korean War.

Here is the full publication of the May 2005 trade figures from the ABS. Scroll past the trend estimates (Moving average of seasonally adjusted figures) and seasonally adjusted figures (moving average of original (real) figures to the breakdown by type.

As I have mentioned in the past, non-rural, specially coal and iron ore are having explosive growth coal up 54% over last year and ore up 31.7%. Whilst wheat farmers, up until last week's rain were the focus of woe for the rural sector, meat goods have been going well too up 22% on last year. If you managed to catch landline (ABC TV) you would have noticed that live sheep exports have restarted, causing a very big jump in mutton prices!
So the drivers for exports are iron ore, coke and coal, and meat. The stuff to make and have a BBQ with... iron and coke for steel, coal for electricity and meat to eat!
Don't forget to gold plate that BBQ as non-monetary gold has been doing well.

The BBQ exports will continue to growth as the 90 day receivables start to be paid by Mr Japan and Mr China et al.

The forecast (sounding like an economist now) is for a trade surplus in the June or July 2005 figures.

On the other side, imports are looking good. If the economic reporters actually looked at the figures in detail they see that consumptions goods are only part of the import picture.
The biggest growth in imports has been fuel (48%), and iron and steel (485), both immediate goods. The iron and steel is getting used to make stuff to make Australia more productive.

In capital good land, the land of greater productivity, machinery and industrial equipment and industrial transport have risen 22% or more over last year. This is stuff which enables us to mine more, sow and harvest more and transport to market more.

Things are looking good, companies are investing in more equipment to drive increased exports in our key comparative advantage areas.

Go and read for yourself, down deep in the report and see for yourself what Australia buys and sells. It is not ten billions of Chinese toys, clothes and furniture in a lopsided one way trade as the media and others portray. The Chinese are fourth behind Germany, Japan and the US.

Have Fun

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Trade Deficit and Foreign Debt -1
Trade Deficit and Foreign Debt -2
Trade Deficit and Foreign Debt -3
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Trade Deficit and Foreign Debt -5
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