Trade and Foreign Debt - 5

The trade deficit was close...so close to become a trade surplus in July, it will be interesting to see what happens in August.
As per normal the ABS has the document as a PDF which you can download and read at your leisure.
The real numbers had the deficit at AUS$389 Million, wiping $1,768 Million of the June Deficit. As always the moving average (Seasonally adjusted) and Trend Estimate (moving average of Seasonally adjusted) still show the deficit being more than a billion in the red.

How was the gold plated BBQ economy going in July 2005?
Finally the big increase in prices (mentioned by BHP, RIO, numerous coal companies) in coal, coking coal, iron showed up. So much for the forecast for the surplus in June or July. Maybe August is the swap over month.
The only chance that it won't is the potential for the higher oil price to show up. Although given Australia also exports fuel, any increase will be offset by an increase in export oil revenue.

Goods exports are more almost $2 Billion over July 2004 from $10.129 Billion to $12.275 Billion. That is a whooping 20% increase. This is with cereal grains and wool missing in action due to drought.
Wool now only makes up 2.1% of the total good exports, the same amount as beverages!

On the import side, the capital investment still stands out. Industrial machinery, steel and processed industrial supplies all show increases over July last year. This capital investment will see real wages rise over time as each laborer becomes more productive. The equipment imported (capital goods) is mining and related equipment. Computers and Scientific equipment also feature.
Investment in more and better tools leads to productivity gains. This means more can be produced, which leads to more profits. This is showing up in the annual reports of many public companies and corporate tax revenues of the Government.

When you look at the state by state breakdown, it becomes clear that Queensland and Western Australia have increased their exports and imports, pursuing their comparative advantages in mining.

The most interesting nugget of information is in the state by state breakdown of exports and imports. Victoria is going backwards in both exports and imports! Something to delve into in the future.

The more Australia produces the more we can buy. Produce and consume.

Have Fun

Previous articles:
Trade Deficit and Foreign Debt -1
Trade Deficit and Foreign Debt -2
Trade Deficit and Foreign Debt -3
Trade Deficit and Foreign Debt -4
Related Articles:
Australian Trade Partners