Saturday, March 31, 2007

Climate Change = Fear campaign

I am going to out myself, yes am I a heretic amongst my heretic leanings...
  1. Who cares about a foreign trade deficit when the domestic economy is much much larger.
  2. Who cares about foreign debt as it is about 10% of total domestic assets.
  3. The claim that the Western economies are hollowed out of manufacturing, when it remains much larger than retail, second only to financial based companies.
  4. Your job as a DBA is to make business tasks run as smoothly and efficiently as possible. Businesses will only care about block internals and x$ tables if it helps that process.
What is the latest outing? From the heading I am guessing you already know.

In NSW, Sydney, we have been bombarded by the need to follow the crowd, peer pressure etc etc and turn off your lights for one hour on Saturday 7.30pm. Not your fridge, heater, air-conditioners, laundry dryers, just your lights. Maybe they will take a satellite picture and send around the energy saver enforcers so that all conform to the new religion.

Here is a article to read about consensus.

I am frankly over the Fear and Doubt campaign being run to propel what was global cooling, then global warming, now climate change. I have no problem with the world warming up, my problem is the root cause.

My objections as a 15 second elevator pitch.
  1. The sun is the biggest source of heat energy.
  2. Water is the biggest greenhouse gas.
  3. I reject that human related activity has any impact of the current increase in temperatures given the many such occurrences in the past.
Please read this post. We have a bunch of people who are believe (and most likely profit) in a delusion of a romantic utopia something along the lines of the garden of eden, but without mankind involved of course.
They push this massive guilt trip (like most other religions and cults) that humans have committed the original sin, in their utopia perspective, of being industrialized and technological rather than remaining in harmony with nature as a pure animal.

Now the underlining reason why I am passionate about technology and freedom to think and develop new technologies.

Technology will set you free and make you live longer.
Less than 100 years ago before wide spread availability of antibiotics, I would have been dead at 2 years old, one of the countless infants who died before reaching the age of 6. I asked my colleagues at a past workplace and 4 out of 5 would also have been dead.
I live because of human technological progress. As a parent now I can't imagine the extreme grief at losing any of your children to random colds or flus. You have got to be joking if I want to regulate and reduce living standards to conform to some deluded Utopian version.

A local TV channel run a hour long program about climate change. As soon as I saw the fake headlines I knew that was going to crap. 8 metre storm surges on the Gold Coast, ho hum. As I do on occasion I interacted with the TV and told it/them that sentence completely crap and switched channels.

Such fate d'compli, do your best old chap to reduce emissions and we might save the planet. (Yes I happened to see that last 10 secs of the show).
Nevermind that is the sun which is causing most of the warming due to increased solar activity and CO2 is not a major greenhouse gas (water and methane are). I even saw some experts actually talking about having to limit population growth again.
Who makes the decision who lives or dies or has children, you or I or some faceless person in the Department of Family Services and Planning?
Anyone bothered to read about about the demographic nightmare which is going to happen to China because of their one child policy.

The method being used by the people who are benefiting both material and otherwise is the classic crowd control/conformity. The scare tactic, with of course the guilty or scapegoat.
Look at big business, look how long and crooked their noses are, behind closed doors they secretly plot to rule over all that is good and just in the world.
Look at the inequality of the world. Why should anyone live better than the lowest common denominator.

We have a solution, we have a romantic vision of a green paradise, a garden of eden utopia where humans are no higher than other beast, we are all animals. Rid to world of business, technology, (and humans) and let Gaiga rule again.

Now a better show was WestWing, damn I can't believe I never watched this show until now.

Have Fun, live long.

BTW, if you want to comment, blog this post and link to it.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

China and India are going to rule the world

I can see them now, the smoke filled room, the world map, the evil laughter bwahahahaha.
China: India, you can have services and we will take manufacturing, we will teach these barbarians their rightful place. We will bring back the glorious days of the Ming dynasty or the Raj in India. Same old romantic garbage.

Nope. Welcome to the whirlwind. The forces unleashed mean there is no going back.

I wrote the following on a comment to a blog article about IT outsourcing and the hollowing out of Australia's capital structure.

Most reserve banks have been very easy in providing liquidity. That has distorted the structure in both Western and Eastern economies. All countries do engage in currency devaluation. The reason being that running a trade deficit is seen as a sin. Everyone wants to be a net exporter which is crazy. It is the pie is only so big fallacy.

I am looking at some 2003-2004 company tax stats, total income was $1.5 trillion. It makes the trade deficit of a couple of billion seem 1000 times smaller and a storm in a tea cup.
http://www.ato.gov.au/content/downloads/70906_2004COM4A.pdf

As for capital goods (a depreciating asset) purchased, it has gone from $35 billion in 1995 to $59 billion in 2004.
http://www.ato.gov.au/content/downloads/70906_2004COM7.pdf
Of course this is not the same rate as China or India but it shows an increase not a decrease.

The picture formed from the article is that China and India will move up the value chain taking all manufacturing and services, growing their capital structure and increasing productivity (capital replacing labour). I want that to happen. I want Chinese and Indians developing new products and services, increasing production and making things better, cheaper, more available.

Again I stress that idea that the pie is only so big is flawed, it leads to people fighting over resources.
Oil is in fact a classic example. Before there was a good use for it, oil seeping on land reduced it value!

All China/India (and Africa) have had traditionally was their labour to sell. Past governments have not be kind to capital accumulation, so real wages are low.

The figures from both tax stats (ATO) and real numbers from trade (ABS) suggest that there is no hollowing out, industries which were subsidized and have a high labour input are gone. Capital good imports in Australia have been strong.

Does IT have a high labour input, yes and no. Bits which IT which do will go offshore as long as it makes sense. I know already some parts of India, office space per metre is more expensive than Sydney and Melbourne. Salaries are rapidly catching up and the idea of a huge resource of skilled capable labour is not true. If you don't care about IT and see it as a cost it will be outsourced.
If you see it as an enabler, a tool you will keep it in-house. You bring in experts to help you plug the gaps. Your core enabling technology does not leave the company.

The actual easiest thing that the government could do would be to scrap capital gains tax. It is a tax on investment and entrepeneurship.